Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Shame on you, CNBC


The last year of coverage on CNBC has featured relentless cheerleading. With every downward thrust of the market, we find a CNBC reporter or anchor talking about the wonderful values being created in the wake of volatility. Well, the bargains kept coming. When they weren't encouraging you to snap up wonderful banks at fire sale prices, they were kvetching about the need for a rate cut or anything that might stave off the impending recession. I turned especially negative on the network in the last month, when they could offer nothing but parroting the breast-beating and wailing of their business friends and sources. The media is supposed to be in impartial conduit, not an unofficial mouthpiece. Were you watching the day Lehman went down? It was funereal. Now that they are past the depression phase of grieving, they have moved on to anger.

The vitriol at Congress for not passing the bailout almost comes through the screen. The Democrats could've passed this bill by themselves, but 90 of them voted against it. Americans overwhelmingly hate this deal. Do we need the $700 billion bailout? Yes. Will we get a deal done? Yes. My problem with CNBC is that they have led the charge in panic-mongering and rapping the knuckles of Main Street Americans for opposing the deal. They are doing Wall Street's light work.

Wall Street is like a panhandler who wants to dictate to you how much you should give him and in what denominations. They're going to get their money. They should try to at least appear grateful.

Friday, September 19, 2008

What now?



Uncle Sam is being especially generous. He has tried thrice to throw money at the problem(Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac, AIG) and failed. Now he is going to buy any and everything just about. Chairman Cox of the SEC has suspended shortselling in stocks. Of course, the stock market is eating it up. The question you must ask yourself is, "is it over?"

I don't think it is, but I am often wrong. I venture to guess that you are often wrong as well. So what do you do when your investment outlook is ambivalent? Put on some hedges. Raise some cash. I think that gold is great place to be right now. Or take a look at parking your cash in a more stable currency like the Swiss Franc. There are ETFs that allow you do both of these.

In yesterday's Washington Post, columnist Steve Pearlstein wrote that finally the U.S. was being forced by its foreign creditors to live within its means. Today's actions by the government would suggest otherwise. While, I am not as hawkish as Ann Woolner on this issue, I do want to see some bodies strung up. If you're not going to give me any money personally, can't I at least get a fall guy to tar and feather?

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Thanks Hank

I needed the Fannie/Freddie bailout during the last week of August, not yesterday. I shorted FNM at $3.99 on 8/21 and ended up covering at $6.18 on 8/27. I shorted FRE at $2.96 on 8/21 and threw in the towel on 8/27, covering at $4.54, They both climbed higher still that week before cratering yesterday.

I knew a government bailout was coming, so why didn't I stick with the trade? It came down to money. First of all, this wasn't my money; it was my girlfriends and I wouldn't have slept well knowing that I'd lost a large chunk of her account on these two trades. Secondly, I was unwilling to sell other positions in order to meet the margin call. That was really, really stupid in retrospect, I have no idea what I was thinking. Shorting takes a different mindset, one that I'm learning to embrace, especially in this market.

Friday, September 5, 2008

Robert Shiller has some answers

Yale economist Robert Shiller gives his take on how to solve the subprime mess. He argues for more short-term help for consumers along with further innovation in the mortgage products space.